In 2022, 100 trading companies closed — this year it will be decided who will lead the next ten.
The conflict with Iran has undermined European energy stability. And the Spanish electricity market is no exception. Since the conflict began, the pool price has risen from €16/MWh (February) to €72/MWh (so far in March), reaching a record high of €136/MWh yesterday. Furthermore, the costs of system adjustment services remain impossible to cover with hedging instruments, and The trading companies that based their model on buying from the wholesaler and reselling with a margin are reliving what happened 4 years ago with the war in Ukraine.
Within this scenario of extreme volatility, a window of opportunity is opening up An opportunity for those who decide to stop being mere kilowatt intermediaries and start offering real value Beyond simply buying cheap hedges for the coming months, four years ago, exposure to gas was the biggest catalyst for self-consumption, in a context where the supply chain was underdeveloped, the sector lacked technology, and storage prices were still out of reach. Today, with 9,3 GW of solar self-consumption already installed in Spain, a recently approved aggregation regulation, and a European flexibility market that will triple to €12.000 billion by 2030, the tools are in place. The question is who moves first.
The Iran war has caused the biggest energy disruption since 2022
On February 28, 2026, joint US-Israeli attacks against Iran triggered a military escalation that has shaken global energy markets. Iran responded with missile attacks on Gulf infrastructure, including Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery and the Ras Laffan LNG terminal. Between March 1 and 2, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global LNG exports normally pass, blocking the passage of 20 million barrels per day: the largest supply disruption in modern energy history, surpassing the Suez Crisis of 1956.
Brent crude rose from around $63/barrel in January to a peak of nearly $120 on March 9, before falling back to $88 following Trump's comments about an imminent end to the conflict. European Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas nearly doubled, from around €32/MWh to a peak of €65/MWh, stabilizing between €48 and €55/MWh by mid-March. The situation is exacerbated by low gas storage levels in the EU: just 46 billion cubic meters (bcm) (30% of capacity), compared to 60 bcm in 2025 and 77 bcm in 2024.
Goldman Sachs raised its TTF forecast for April to €55/MWh (from €36/MWh), warning that a one-month closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push TTF to €74/MWh, and a two-month disruption above €100/MWh, levels not seen since the 2022 crisis. OMIP futures markets for Spain reflect a dual picture: short-term panic but some medium-term optimism. April 2026 futures are trading at €42,50/MWh and Q2 at €51,40/MWh. But hedging today is not cheap: those same quarterly futures were trading at €40-41/MWh a year ago for the equivalent quarters. Hedging now costs 25-27% more than it did in March 2025. And if the market is wrong and the conflict drags on, the consequences for energy suppliers with fixed-price contracts could be catastrophic.
Spanish pools are soaring, and adjustment costs remain the silent killer.
The average daily pool price on OMIE jumped from €71,67/MWh in January to €136,86/MWh on March 10, the highest level since February 2025. Intraday peaks exceeded €250/MWh between 21:00 PM and 23:00 PM. The regulated PVPC tariff reached €394,27/MWh between 20:00 PM and 21:00 PM that same day. The intraday pattern is extreme: solar energy pushes prices close to zero at midday, while evening peaks with marginal gas prices surge above €200/MWh.
But this spike due to the Iran crisis lands on top of a pre-existing structural crisis. Since the national blackout of April 28, 2025System balancing services (SSAA) have become the real margin killer. These balancing costs have risen from approximately €1/MWh in 2019 to €27,52/MWh in 2025, an increase of 351% in three years. The total cost of technical constraints reached €3.300 billion in 2025, with around €1.100 billion directly attributable to REE's post-blackout enhanced operation measures.
The main problem for marketing companies is that There are no hedging instruments for the costs of adjustment servicesWhile marketers can hedge their exposure to the pool price through futures on OMIP, bilateral OTC contracts or PPAs, SSAA costs cannot be hedged. This makes every fixed-price contract a gamble on unpredictable system costs.
Fixed-price contracts are being redesigned: the traditional model is not sustainable
The combined pressure of volatile pool prices and unhedged utility costs is transforming how energy retailers structure their offerings. Many fixed-price campaigns were paralyzed after the April 2025 blackout. The consultancy firm Evoltio warned of a high risk of repeating a similar episode to that of 2021, with potential contract breaches or extraordinary adjustments. Let us remember that the 2021 crisis led to the closure of 26 energy retailers in a single year, with around 100 small retailers closing in total.
Defensive responses are varied. Many new contracts include transfer clauses for energy storage services, setting a threshold (around €20/MWh) above which any excess is billed to the customer. Iberdrola has introduced annual review clauses for energy storage services. Gana Energía applied a 6% surcharge to cover these costs. Others have shortened commitment periods or added CPI-based escalation clauses.
The OCU (Spanish Consumers' Organization) found that energy suppliers have quadrupled fixed charges for contracted power, from €24,40 per household in 2021 to €83,10, to appear competitive on kWh price while recovering costs elsewhere. And when the CNMC (National Markets and Competition Commission) explicitly prohibited suppliers in June 2025 from modifying existing fixed-price contracts to pass on post-blackout SSAA (Social Services Administration) costs, several were forced to reverse previously announced price increases, further deepening their losses.
The competitive landscape remains intense despite these pressures. Spain has more than 534 active energy retailers, one of the highest numbers in Europe. In 2024, 7,25 million changes of electricity company were recorded.A historic record that affected 23,9% of consumers. But the concentration is intensifying: the five largest groups control 84,9% of the supply points in the domestic deregulated market. The disruptive case is Octopus Energy, which surpassed 500.000 customers by the end of 2025 (from 35.000 in 2022), while Endesa and Naturgy lose market share. Independent energy retailers without generation assets face the most acute pressure: worse coverage conditions, higher guarantee requirements and no possibility of entering through adjustment services as generators do.
Self-consumption and flexibility: from niche product to necessity
Spain already has 9,3 GW of accumulated photovoltaic self-consumption capacity in more than 500.000 installations, generating 10.550 GWh in 2025, approximately 4,1% of national electricity demand. Although new installations fell for the third consecutive year to around 1.139 MW (from the peak of 2.600 MW in 2022), The market is maturing, not dying.Behind-the-meter storage grew by 119% to 339 MWh in 2025. The average residential size rose to 5,5 kW, reflecting the electrification of heating and electric vehicle charging. And the April 2025 blackout led to a 105% increase in off-grid installations. Reviving consumer interest in energy independence.
The self-consumption economy remains attractive: Average savings per household of €1.007/year (an 84% reduction in the bill) with a payback period of 6,2 years on an investment of around €6.900. But the real story is what comes after the installation.
Battery storage is no longer an expensive technology for early adopters. According to BloombergNEF, the cost of stationary battery storage fell by 45% in 2025 alone, to $70/kWh at the pack level. In three years, it has halved. At these prices, a home with solar self-consumption that adds a physical battery doesn't need any energy supplier to "store" its surplus energy on an accounting record. It stores it itself. And it uses it when electricity is expensive, which is precisely when the system needs it most. For energy retailers, this means that customers with solar panels and batteries are no longer dependent on the grid during peak hours. Either you offer them something better than the market, or that customer will disconnect from your value proposition.
The regulatory framework is now ready: RD 88/2026 and the era of the independent aggregator
The Spanish flexibility ecosystem received its most important regulatory boost with Royal Decree 88/2026Published on February 12, 2026. This regulation formally establishes for the first time the figure of the independent aggregator, completing the transposition of European Directive 2019/944.
The key points of this regulation are crucial. Aggregators can combine consumer loads, distributed generation, and storage to participate in balancing markets. Consumers have the right to contract aggregation services without the consent of their energy supplier. Energy suppliers with more than 200.000 customers are required to offer dynamic pricing. A national data hub is being created to centralize data from all supply points. REE has two months to design the aggregation procedures, and energy suppliers have four months to adapt.
In addition, the shared self-consumption area has been extended from a radius of 2 to 5 km (RD-law 7/2025), the creation of the role of self-consumption manager for collective installations and the review of demand response regulations. The SRAD (active demand response service) has allocated 1.725 MW for the first half of 2026, 50% more than in 2025. Five MITECO sandbox pilot projects They are testing practical mechanisms for local flexibility markets, citizen storage, and independent aggregator models.
The market opportunity is enormous, but it demands speed.
The convergence of crisis and regulation opens a window for marketing companies that act with commercial agility. The European demand-side flexibility market will grow from €4.000 billion to €12.000 billion by 2030, according to McKinsey. Spain is particularly well positioned: over 99% penetration of smart meters (the highest in Europe) in residential areas, a pipeline The government's plan calls for approximately 16 GW of utility-scale battery projects by 2030, and a National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) target of 19 GW of self-consumption by 2030, up from the current 9,3 GW. There is widespread skepticism within the sector regarding the feasibility of these official targets. Meeting the government's plan would require installing 2.000 MW annually, almost double the current 1.100 MW. However, even if the market were to move more slowly and only half of that target were achieved, it would still represent massive growth. For retailers, the impact is direct on their business model: what today represents only 3-5% of their customer base will scale up to between 14% and 17% in the short term. It is a significant change in the product mix that will require an immediate redesign of the commercial strategy.
The consumer's willingness exists, but it is not being properly addressed. Only 56,9% of households report being satisfied with their electricity provider, with price being the main complaint. 66% of households with solar panels plan to install a heat pump within the next three years. And 71% of households prioritize energy security over other factors: a clear indication of demand for the kind of predictable and optimized energy management that flexibility products can offer.
There are already marketing companies demonstrating that the model works. Nexus Energía, the sixth largest energy supplier in Spain, partnered with Bamboo Energy to meet industrial demand: the food distributor Distribuciones Monteverde achieved a 6% savings on their bill through load shifting of refrigeration. Soldelia manages community solar projects in Córdoba at a fixed price of €0,06/kWh with no initial investment. Holaluz and Som Energía are building community energy platforms. These pioneers are transforming the flexibility of a regulatory concept into tangible value propositions for the customer.
React now or lose the game
In 2024, Spain recorded 7,25 million changes of electricity provider, an all-time record. And that was before Iran triggered volatility. What's coming will be worse. Every sharp rise in the pool price means another customer reconsiders their contract. The question is not whether there will be a movement of customers, but who will attract them.
The Iran crisis has exposed a vulnerability that was already present: trading companies built on simple wholesale purchase and retail resale margins are becoming increasingly less viable. Hedging costs at OMIP are 25% higher than a year ago. Adjustment services remain impossible to hedge. And the customer feels the effects on their bill.
But at the same time, The pieces for a different model are already on the table. Self-consumption exceeds 9 GW installed. Energy storage has become 45% cheaper in just one year. Royal Decree 88/2026 enables independent aggregators. And the European flexibility market will triple to €12.000 billion by 2030.
The energy retailers that are currently offering these mobile customers a real proposal for controlling and managing their assets — self-consumption, storage, consumption optimization — will retain them. And once they're in an energy services relationship, those customers don't switch for half a cent less per kWh.
Those who fail to capture them during this window of volatility will have to compete for them in a calm market where the only lever is price. And that's a war that retailers without generation assets cannot win.
The window between regulatory approval and market saturation is narrow. This is not a strategic reflection for the upcoming offsite expansion. It's a decision that needs to be made this week.
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